GPU Availability and Pricing Update: November 2021. When will gpu prices go down

In fact, several retailers told us that GPU sales are not particularly high at the moment as interest in cards at current prices is low, but they cannot lower prices due to insidious vendor tactics such as bundling and simple price inflation. So it seems that there is a stalemate on this front.

At long last, Nvidia and AMD GPU street prices are beginning to drop

We’re not even out of the woods yet – we’re not even close – but it looks like Nvidia and AMD GPU prices may finally drop. Tom’s Hardware in the US and 3DCenter.org in Germany are charting on eBay and local retail prices respectively, and they both see the same thing: a significant drop for almost every new graphics card manufactured by Nvidia and AMD.

You want the Nvidia RTX 3080? Two months ago, it could have cost 400,773 on the street – more than two and a half times the manufacturer’s suggested retail price. As reported in November with our own chart, this was typical of the hottest graphics cards, and Tom’s Hardware shows that things got a bit worse in December. But in January, those prices dropped 11 percent to an average of 400,600.

The RTX 3080 isn’t alone: ​​most of all RTX 3000 and AMD Radeon RX 6000 graphics cards have dropped between about 5 and 10 percent, with the RX 6900 XT being the only exception that has increased in price.

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Keep in mind that Tom’s Hardware also shows that sales volumes dropped significantly on eBay, with some cards barely replaced in the beginning: just nine Radeon RX 6800 units changed hands in a week. It’s possible that prices are going down because some people give up not wanting to pay scalper fees.

Or maybe it has to do with the diver the cryptocurrency has done recently. It’ll be interesting to see if the recent decline will drastically lower GPU prices as they won’t be as valuable to miners now. Miners often sell large amounts of graphics cards when they can’t get them to work. This batch of eBay data is from last week, so it doesn’t have the full impact of cryptocurrencies yet.

But 3DCenter.org shows that the decline occurs not only when GPUs are sold on the aftermarket, but also at German retailers:

Chart by 3DCenter.org

In between those two reports, that seems like a good sign – even if you still pay more than double the MSRP for the RTX 3060 Ti right now.

While we haven’t seen any significant signs that supply has kept pace with demand (these GPUs are still extremely hard to find for anything other than exorbitant prices), Nvidia and AMD have repeatedly signaled that they expect supply to improve in the second half of the year. 2022.

On the front, PS5 and Xbox Series X are also seeing second-hand prices drop on eBay. I’ve been running several numbers on eBay over the past three months and both Sony and Microsoft’s flagship consoles have dropped $ 100, from an average price of $ 800 to an average of around $ 700. Here are the charts if you are curious.

average PS5 Selling Price on eBay, Last 90 Days Screenshot by Sean Hollister / The Verge

Xbox Series X Average selling price on eBay, last 90 days. Screenshot: Sean Hollister / The Verge

The European Union Court has just lifted a € 1.06 billion fine imposed on Intel in 2009. The fine was initially imposed after the European Commission found that Intel was abusing its dominant position in the processor market to foreclose competitors.

Upcoming Releases, a Possible Solution?

One particular story that has been circulating recently concerns the Nvidia RTX 2060 refresh with 12GB of VRAM. This launch has been gurgling for a while now, with reports going back months, but it seems like everything is gearing up for the production of the RTX 2060 refresh in January. For example, Gigabyte models are starting to appear on the ECC. Some people call it the GPU that aims to fight miners and alleviate stock market problems, but will it really be?

From a production standpoint, building the RTX 2060 should be cheaper than other Nvidia GPUs. It uses the previous generation Turing GPU, which is built using the older and cheaper 12nm TSMC node, which is slightly less in demand than their leading nodes. However, the RTX 2060 still uses GDDR6 memory, the same memory used in current GPUs, including the RTX 3060, and the same amount as the 3060 at 12 GB. So if there are any limitations in the supply of GDDR6 memory or the prices of that memory are still high, the RTX 2060 will not necessarily be the true solution to the GPU availability crisis.

However, since it is built on a mature node, it is possible that the total supply of Nvidia GPUs will increase, provided they have purchased additional capacity from TSMC, and we have no evidence to know if they have it or not. If the supply in Samsung’s 8nm node is fully exhausted and there is no room to purchase additional power, and the supply of GPUs is a key constraint to additional GPU production, it is possible that this premiere will increase supply.

But that’s a lot of “if”, and we’re not convinced that simply moving to an older design on a more mature node will significantly increase the supply of GPUs. Over the past year, we’ve heard of many price increases and problems with the availability of all kinds of components used to assemble a graphics card, from memory and surface components to the PCBs themselves – solving foundry performance issues is not the only limiting factor.

The second important point, of course, is mining. The theory is that the RTX 2060 is a less attractive card for miners compared to many others. However, this is currently not the case with Whattomine numbers. The RTX 2060 is now more profitable than the RTX 3060, but that’s for mining smaller coins. Granted, the RTX 2060 is a less attractive option than the 3060 for Ethereum, but it’s not the only cryptocurrency you can mine. Also consider that even the RX 6600 XT is attracted to miners and its profitability is not astounding, so we don’t think the RTX 2060 is any less attractive. In other words, we suspect that it would still be bought up for mining.

In our opinion, the release of the RTX 2060 refresh and the expectation that it will have a significant impact on GPU pricing is far-fetched. It is also highly unlikely that any refresh will be available at the MSRP Nvidia chooses to set. They already have the RTX 3060 for $ 330, AMD has the Radeon RX 6600 for $ 330, and the RTX 2060 market is strong. Presumably Nvidia would have to set the MSRP below $ 330, but the current market prices of the aforementioned cards are above $ 500 – or above $ 700 for the 3060. Nvidia would have to produce a huge amount of these cards in order to drag the market prices lower.

Prospective GPU launches. What If.

That being said, we don’t think the release of the refreshed RTX 2060 is a bad move as any small tweak can help some buy a cheaper GPU. It’s also possible that a re-release of the RTX 2060 would be a more attractive and efficient option than Nvidia releasing the RTX 3050 in the same price range. They could release the RTX 3050 at any time (there’s already a laptop version), so let’s break down a few numbers.

Based on our latest data, we know that the RTX 2060 is approximately 17 percent slower than the RTX 3060 at 1440p and approximately 8 percent slower than the RX 6600. We also know from the mobile side that the RTX 3050 design using the GA107 and even the RTX 3050 Ti it has at least 33 percent fewer CUDA cores than the RTX 3060 and is limited to a 4 or 8 GB configuration due to the 128-bit memory bus (with lower memory bandwidth to boot).

And then in mobile setups, the RTX 3050 ends up somewhere between 25 and 35 percent slower than the RTX 3060 and many times slower than the RTX 2060. If it’s cheaper or easier to produce 445mm2 TU106 RTX 2060 die on 12nm TSMC than it is in production the GA107 matrix with an area of ​​less than 200 mm2 in the 3050 model on Samsung 8 nm, while performing better, seems to be a better option than moving forward with the RTX 3050 design for desktops.

There have also been rumors about the GeForce RTX 3090 Ti and potentially other freshening up in early 2022, however I don’t think producing a new and super expensive GPU – even more expensive than the RTX 3090 – will help too much (not gamers at least).

However, a more likely contender for an improvement in supply and pricing would be AMD’s Navi 24 GPU designs, which we have yet to see and which are now expected in early 2022. At the moment, AMD has only released its Navi 23 designs which are 237mm2 TSMC 7nm and are currently mid-range options.

The Navi 24 would theoretically be a smaller, cheaper and easier to manufacture GPU, with a suggested retail price of $ 200 (MSRP, the market would raise the real retail price in the current climate). We haven’t seen any new GPUs in this class since the GTX 16 Super and RX 5500 XT series in late 2019. Then, of course, the upcoming Intel Arc GPUs will arrive in early 2022, further increasing GPU Availability.

As for GPU manufacturers, a possible solution is to produce more GPUs and create new GPU options covering a wider price range, but it was a slow process. There is no incentive to speed up this process as long as the demand for high-end GPUs remains high as it is in the best interest of companies to sell more of them. Nvidia also has its own LHR program to reduce the profitability of mining, although miners are slowly destroying it.

Aside from continuing to produce GPUs at record speeds, there is no real “solution” or quick fix to what we are currently seeing. Companies can’t just go to their customers and say “okay, enough, stop buying our GPUs well above the suggested retail price, only buy at a lower price” – that’s not how it works. Street prices are dictated by supply and demand, and only when these things change will we see price movement.

While we haven’t seen any significant signs that supply has kept pace with demand (these GPUs are still extremely hard to find for anything other than exorbitant prices), Nvidia and AMD have repeatedly signaled that they expect supply to improve in the second half of the year. 2022.

Are GPU Prices Going Down? Or Coming Up?

According to Business Insider, GPU prices are expected to rise due to the rise in Ethereum prices, which is an essential component of Nvidia GPUs.

In fact, Ethereum’s prices have risen more than 23% in the past few weeks%.

At the same time, however, we experienced a drop in the prices of some GPUs. For example, Nvidia’s RTX 3080Ti and RTX 3090 dropped to 20-25% from the suggested retail price.

But, given the rise in Ethereum prices, we’re not entirely sure if GPU prices will continue to fall or rise.

Also, the demand for GPUs for cryptocurrency mining is increasing over time and it is difficult to decide whether manufacturers will be able to develop enough GPUs or not.

Want detailed information on the effect of GPU power cap? Read our definitive guide on the importance of the GPU power cap: Understanding the GPU for this purpose.

That said, here’s a helpful chart outlining the rising prices of GPUs.

Nvidia And AMD GPU Prices (March 2021):

Below is a pricing table of various Nvidia and AMD GPUs. It clearly shows how much GPU prices have risen.

Item	Retail price	Street price (December 2020)	Street price (Mar 2021)	The current value
Nvidia RTX 3090	400 499	3500.076	3500 985	1.99x
Nvidia RTX 3080	699	400 227	3500,160	3.09x
Nvidia RTX 3070	$ 499	$ 819	400 239	2.48x
Nvidia RTX 3060 Ti	$ 399	675	400 226	3.07x
Nvidia RTX 3060	pLN 329	Not applicable	828	2.5x
AMD RX 6900 XT	$ 999	Not applicable	400 841	1.84x
AMD RX 6800 XT	649	400.232	400 555	2.4x
AMD RX 6800	579	841	400 331	2.3x
AMD RX 6700 XT	$ 479	Not applicable	400,169	2.4x

Note: Prices may vary depending on release date, demand and shortages at the time.

Is GPU Shortage Over?

While you may have to pay double or even triple the original price, the GPU shortage is almost over. Finally, there are enough different GPUs on the market that you can buy.

However, it can be difficult to use different units of the same model.

To completely eliminate the GPU shortage, all major manufacturers are busy designing next-gen GPUs, most notably Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. While Intel is expected to release its Arc Alchemist GPUs in early 2022, we don’t know when Nvidia and AMD will launch their next GPUs.

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Want detailed information on the effect of GPU power cap? Read our definitive guide on the importance of the GPU power cap: Understanding the GPU for this purpose.

A roller coaster of prices

Normally I would expect GPU prices to drop as generations start showing their age. But the GPU market isn’t normal right now, and I can’t tell you which direction GPU prices will go. Prices fell in mid-2021, showing promising signs that the GPU shortage is finally slowing down. Now that we are in the beginning of 2022, prices are rising again.

The cost of the components is in the air and graphics cards are still subject to the 25% tariff. Nvidia and other companies have asked the US government for an exemption from these tariffs, but this exemption was not granted at the time of publication. There are also rumors that AMD may introduce a 10% price increase on its RX 6000 graphics cards.

Needless to say, GPU pricing is a mess and will likely remain a mess for much of 2022. I suspect that at the beginning of the year we will see a drop in prices, an increase around summer and another fall (hopefully still falling). This is just speculation. There’s no way to predict which direction prices are going, given how the GPU market has been going for over a year.

Prices will drop at some point, but may not reach the same levels as before. The coronavirus pandemic has significantly increased demand for computers and graphics cards, and that demand has not gone away – even with many people returning to the office. While there are signs that AMD and Intel will be selling under $ 200 GPUs in the future, we don’t have these options. Graphics cards may never be as cheap as they used to be.

Increased supply

Niels Broekhuijsen / Digital Trends

As with valuation, I don’t have a GPU crystal ball that indicates the direction the market is going. However, there are signs that the supply will increase in 2022. Nvidia recently said it expects the GPU shortage to limit itself by mid-2022. Intel’s CEO said something similar, stating that the chip shortage would improve in 2022, hoping to create a stable supply chain by 2023.

This does not necessarily mean a price drop. Supply and demand are important, but the cost of components and tariffs can still make graphics cards more expensive than they should be. Looking ahead to next year, I expect it will be easier to find graphics cards in online stores, but prices will remain high.

I can already see the signs of this. While graphics cards are hard to find, major retailers now have cards in stock. These are mostly barrel bottom options – the Radeon RX 6900 XT, which is a great graphics card, is likely in stock for its price – but there are cards available. This situation should improve next year.

I do not suspect that we will see more mobile GPUs from Nvidia or AMD, at least not from the current generation. We can see some special editions, but AMD and Nvidia after CES put together the cell phone lines.

Are graphics cards prices getting lower?

Yes, graphics card prices are currently in a lower trend than they were according to 3DCenter data. This means that retailers are lowering the retail prices of graphics cards that are in stock. While the pace at which these GPUs are supercharged from their MSRP, it can still be considered on the high side. The difference is that we can see production costs drop as the global semiconductor shortage begins to mitigate, meaning AIBs can then fix a lower purchase cost to the distributor, which means lower prices at the retailer.

6500 XT	6600	6600 XT	6700 XT	6800	6800 XT	6900 XT
Manufacturer’s suggested retail price	$ 199	pLN 329	379	$ 479	579	649	$ 999
Current surcharge	+ 43%	+ 47%	+ 51%	+ 73%	+ 97%	+ 88%	+ 43%
Additional payment (compared to the beginning of January)	Not applicable	-12%	-12%	-13%	-12%	-18%	No change
Availability	2/5	4/5	4/5	5/5	3/5	4/5	5/5

source: 3DCenter.org

It looks like more GPUs are in stock, especially at the end of the Radeon RX 6000 series, and with this availability it looks like the price will go down. It is possible that manufacturers adjust their costs on the fly based on availability and demand. The 6500 XT is of course exempt from this as it was recently launched on the market. Producers generally won’t move prices around a market like cryptocurrencies, but with this volume of sales coming from miners, it’s possible for more producers and retailers to start lowering prices in line with demand, and supply starts to stabilize to somewhat normal levels.

Nvidia GPU price fluctuation

3060	3060 Ti	3070	3070 Ti	3080 (10 GB)	3080 Ti	3090
Manufacturer’s suggested retail price	pLN 329	$ 399	$ 499	$ 599	699	$ 1199	$ 1,499
Current surcharge	+ 88%	+ 91%	+ 83%	+ 75%	+ 98%	+ 49%	+ 53%
Surcharge (compare to the beginning of January)	-15%	-12%	-8%	-9%	-7%	-2%	-7%
Availability	4/5	4/5	4/5	4/5	4/5	4/5	4/5

source: 3DCenter.org

Nvidia graphics cards, on the other hand, experience stabilization in availability, but not in terms of price, which results in eye-catching tags that get a bit better in some cases, especially at the bottom end of their product stack. We can only pray that these cards will eventually return to the recommended suggested retail price as both stocks and demand begin to stabilize. It should be noted that these prices were followed by German retailers and reflect declines and variations only in this region.

Another thing to watch out for is exchange rates, product prices will fluctuate as a result of exchange rates, reflecting how we’ve seen the Founder’s Edition increase slightly this month. However, the prospects for players look sunny, maybe one day we won’t even have to write about such posts, but just enjoy a bath in a bathtub full of amazingly efficient graphics cards. But it’s not just sunshine and rainbows, we still have to wait and see if this trend continues.

Are you looking for a GPU for yourself? We have all the links you need to know about.

In fact, several retailers told us that GPU sales are not particularly high at the moment as interest in cards at current prices is low, but they cannot lower prices due to insidious vendor tactics such as bundling and simple price inflation. So it seems that there is a stalemate on this front.

Should you wait?

I look at my watch and wait. Photo source: Pexels.com | Jeshots

It is not known if this GPU shortage will ever end. The cryptocurrency has finally caught the attention of the mainstream. Miners can make a lot of money after taking into account the cost of computer components and tools. As a result, it won’t go away until cryptocurrency mining is finished. Users will have to stop wanting crypto or the government will have to intervene in regulations. This is probably not the best approach. Nevertheless, until we can have a greater supply than is currently needed, this will have to be our reality for a while.

I expect Intel, Nvidia and AMD to repeat themselves on the image quality and performance of their scaling features, whichever is most beneficial to them at the moment. Both are important, but I suspect that in 2022 we will hear more about the one being more important than the other.

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