What to expect from the GPU market in 2022. When are graphics cards going to get cheaper

But while industry experts and consumers are getting a better understanding of what caused the global chip shortage, most people still don’t know when they can expect to finally get access to GPUs again. A new DigiTimes report sheds some light on the situation (via WinFuture).

Why Are Graphics Cards So Expensive Right Now?

You’ve probably noticed now how expensive graphics cards are. But why? Here are the reasons for the high prices.

It’s hard to get hold of a new graphics card at the moment. Whether you are looking for a new generation or legacy card, all cards on the market today are overpriced and with limited availability.

In short: the current demand for graphics cards far exceeds the total available supply. How did this happen? Why is supply not keeping up with demand?

In this article, we’ll look at the reasons why graphics cards are so expensive these days. Many of these factors are obvious. On the other hand, others may surprise you.

The Global Chip Shortage

Why are GPUs so expensive? Economics, my dear Watson. Supply, demand, and resource allocation determine how available or expensive a good or service is, especially with what the general public sees and has access to.

We are currently facing a global chip shortage that could go on indefinitely. We use semiconductor chips in everything from computers to airplanes; producers all over the world have had to cut or limit production due to scarcity.

This applies not only to graphics cards, but also to other sectors, including laptops, phones, and video game consoles.

Everything we’ve talked about so far would be enough for graphics card prices to skyrocket, but things worsened as the calendar jumped to 2021 Crunch.

Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs

Concept art for the Intel DG2 graphics card.

Perhaps the most exciting news about the GPU in 2022 is Intel’s Arc Alchemist graphics cards. Intel makes a lot of GPUs, but Arc Alchemist is designing a slot-in desktop GPU that focuses on games for the first time.

Rumors have suggested that Intel will introduce cards at CES, which is, in a way, true. Intel has announced that Arc Alchemist will be appearing on more than 50 desktops and laptops “soon” at CES, but the company has not disclosed details of what cards are in the range, when they come out, or how much they will cost. So far, we know of a few laptops – like the Alienware X17 – with the Arc GPU, but no other details otherwise.

Rumor has it that the flagship card in the range will work close to the RTX 3070, but I’m waiting for Intel to release more. Intel has already shared some information about the XeSS scaling feature that will be included with these graphics cards. It works similarly to Nvidia Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS), and Intel announced that Hitman 3, The Riftbreaker, and Death Stranding: Director’s Cut will support this feature at launch.

For too long, the GPU market has been mired in competition between AMD and Nvidia, so I can’t wait to see what Intel can do with Arc Alchemist. XeSS looks destructive enough, and as long as the cards perform as rumors suggest, we’ll have a third competitor in the ring. That said, we’re already in the boot window Intel announced for Arc Alchemist, and we still don’t know much about cards.

New mobile GPUs from AMD and Nvidia

Nvidia RTX 2060 Super and RTX 2070 Super review

Dan Baker / digital trends

Nvidia recently launched the 12GB variant of the RTX 2060 Super, and Nvidia and AMD made new desktop announcements at CES. AMD brought the RX 6500 XT for $ 199, and Nvidia showed the RTX 3050 for $ 249 and the RTX 3090 Ti. Nvidia also quietly released the 12GB variant of the RTX 3080, which was not featured at CES.

That’s it for desktop classifieds now. For the first half of the year, Nvidia and AMD focus on mobile graphics. AMD has unveiled eight new mobile GPU designs at CES, including new RX 6000S cards. These cards are the opposite of the Nvidia Max-Q offering, focusing on performance per watt rather than raw performance.

Nvidia only unveiled two new mobile GPUs, but they are good. The mobile RTX 3080 Ti and RTX 3070 Ti models will eventually replace non-Ti laptops and should offer significant performance gains. Nvidia says the mobile RTX 3080 Ti is more powerful than the Titan RTX desktop, which is really impressive.

I do not suspect that we will see more mobile GPUs from Nvidia or AMD, at least not from the current generation. We can see some special editions, but AMD and Nvidia after CES put together the cell phone lines.

As the number of all-new current generation GPUs increases, so does the growth in the used market. The GeForce RTX 20 series saw price increases worldwide, with a 6 percent increase month-to-month.

Prospective GPU launches. What If.

That being said, we don’t think the release of the refreshed RTX 2060 is a bad move as any small tweak could help some buy a cheaper GPU. It’s also possible that a re-release of the RTX 2060 would be a more attractive and efficient option than Nvidia releasing the RTX 3050 in the same price range. They could release the RTX 3050 at any time (there’s already a laptop version), so let’s break down a few numbers.

Based on our latest data, we know the RTX 2060 is around 17 percent slower than the RTX 3060 at 1440p and around 8 percent slower than the RX 6600. We also know from the mobile side that the RTX 3050 design uses GA107 and even the RTX 3050 Ti has what at least 33 percent fewer CUDA cores than the RTX 3060 and is limited to a 4 or 8 GB configuration due to the 128-bit memory bus (with lower memory bandwidth to boot).

And then in mobile setups, the RTX 3050 ends up somewhere between 25 and 35 percent slower than the RTX 3060 and many times slower than the RTX 2060. If it’s cheaper or easier to produce 445mm2 TU106 RTX 2060 die on 12nm TSMC than it is in production the GA107 matrix with an area of ​​less than 200 mm2 in the 3050 model on Samsung 8 nm, while performing better, seems to be a better option than moving forward with the RTX 3050 design for desktops.

There have also been rumors about the GeForce RTX 3090 Ti and potentially other freshening up in early 2022, however I don’t think producing a new and super expensive GPU – even more expensive than the RTX 3090 – will help too much (not gamers at least).

However, a more likely contender for an improvement in supply and pricing would be AMD’s Navi 24 GPU designs, which we have yet to see and which are now expected in early 2022. At the moment, AMD has only released its Navi 23 designs which are 237mm2 TSMC 7nm and are currently mid-range options.

The Navi 24 would theoretically be a smaller, cheaper and easier to manufacture GPU, with a suggested retail price of $ 200 (MSRP, the market would raise the real retail price in the current climate). We haven’t seen any new GPUs in this class since the GTX 16 Super and RX 5500 XT series in late 2019. Then, of course, the upcoming Intel Arc GPUs will arrive in early 2022, further increasing GPU Availability.

As for GPU manufacturers, a possible solution is to produce more GPUs and create new GPU options covering a wider price range, but it was a slow process. There is no incentive to speed up this process as long as the demand for high-end GPUs remains high as it is in the best interest of companies to sell more of them. Nvidia also has its own LHR program to reduce the profitability of mining, although miners are slowly destroying it.

Aside from continuing to produce GPUs at record speeds, there is no real “solution” or quick fix to what we are currently seeing. Companies can’t just go to their customers and say “okay, enough, stop buying our GPUs well above the suggested retail price, only buy at a lower price” – that’s not how it works. Street prices are dictated by supply and demand, and only when these things change will we see price move.

GPU Pricing Update

Now let’s talk about the current GPU market. Cryptocurrencies remain strong overall, with most coins, including Ethereum, appreciating in the past month. This has also caused increased difficulties, suggesting that there is still interest in increasing the stocks of GPUs used for mining. Profitability rose for most of the month, until the last few days when the cryptocurrency had cooled down somewhat and left month-to-month profitability unchanged. In other words, 2021 has been a fairly typical month for a major GPU pricing driver.

Street prices for the new GPUs were estimated from last week’s eBay auctions, which showed that after a few months of relatively low prices, prices rose in November.

This is expected given what happened on the cryptocurrency side, where scalper prices reflect cryptocurrency prices to a lesser extent and with little lag. Nvidia GPUs saw an average price increase of 6% month-on-month, with the RTX 3090 and RTX 3060 Ti recording the highest increases and the RTX 3070 having the lowest increases by 4%.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price average eBay price in September average price of eBay in October average price of eBay in November Current price inflation Price increase from October to November
GeForce RTX 3090 400,500 3,500,863 3500 818 $ 3,107 107% 10%
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti 400 200 400.880 400 851 400 916 60% 4%
GeForce RTX 3080 700 PLN 400 673 400 534 400 584 126% 3%
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti 600 PLN 400 191 400.151 400 227 104% 7%
GeForce RTX 3070 pLN 500 400.180 400 121 400,170 134% 4%
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti pLN 400 $ 866 860 946 136% 10%
GeForce RTX 3060 330 pLN 708 692 739 124% 7%
Average 113% 6%

Despite these hikes, Nvidia GPUs are still selling at some of the lowest prices we saw in 2021. Prices are similar to the level we observed in August and September, which is lower than the peaks recorded in 2020.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price average eBay price in September average price of eBay in October average price of eBay in November Current price inflation Price increase from October to November
Radeon 6900 XT 400,000 400 569 400 493 400 585 59% 6%
Radeon 6800 XT 650 400 411 400 388 400 524 134% 10%
Radeon 6800 $ 580 400 309 400 254 400 413 144% 13%
Radeon 6700 XT $ 480 $ 881 872 $ 980 104% 12%
Radeon RX 6600 XT $ 380 pLN 639 $ 621 689 81% 11%
Radeon RX 6600 330 $ 571 584 PLN 77% 2%
Average 100% 9%

What we want to discuss is the bigger question everyone has been asking for last year: will GPU prices ever go down? When will it fall? Are there any upcoming solutions to the problem at work?

The Crypto Rollercoaster

So, what has happened in the mining country in the past month? Prices for the most popular mining coin, Ethereum, have been relatively flat from month to month, a few weeks ago there was a period where prices rose, cooled down, and there has been a decline in the past few days. But it’s a volatile market as usual, so overall it was flat.

Meanwhile, during this period, Ethereum’s difficulty has increased by about 15%, meaning there is a decent amount of additional mining gear in the pool compared to a month ago. This would be a reaction to rising cryptocurrency prices over the past two months, but it has stabilized slightly over the past week. This means that miners were interested in buying GPUs for mining, which contributed to higher prices, although the impact is that as the difficulty increases, mining rewards decrease. So increasing difficulty is both a good and a bad sign for players.

Overall, this has led to a decline in mining profitability, which is currently down by around 25% month-on-month, though it depends on the specific GPU. Cards where Ethereum is not the most profitable choice of coins to mine – such as Nvidia LHR GPUs – have seen more serious drops. However, most of these drops occurred last week after the cryptocurrency price peak, and as there is always a lag before it is reflected in GPU prices, we are only now starting to see these effects.

GPU Pricing Update

How this affected the GPU pricing on eBay, which we’ve been tracking every month for quite some time now. Here’s the GeForce RTX 30 series from Nvidia as it reviews past eBay auctions last week. Most mid-to-high-end GPUs haven’t changed significantly from what we saw a month ago. The RTX 3080 Ti has an average of 4% while the RTX 3070 is down 4%. Then at both ends of the scale we have slightly bigger changes as the RTX 3090 grew 10% and the RTX 3060 Ti fell 9% with this GPU still appearing to be well priced.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price average price of eBay in July average eBay price in August average eBay price in September Current price inflation Price increases from August to September
GeForce RTX 3090 400,500 3,500,599 3500.607 3,500,863 91% 10%
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti 400 200 400 905 400 815 400.880 57% 4%
GeForce RTX 3080 700 PLN 400 623 400 643 400 673 139% 2%
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti 600 PLN 400 085 400,170 400 191 99% 2%
GeForce RTX 3070 pLN 500 400 075 400,228 400.180 136% -4%
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti pLN 400 400 012 952 $ 866 117% -9%
GeForce RTX 3060 330 $ 723 752 pLN 708 114% -6%
Average 107% 0%

At the moment, most of Nvidia’s product range, especially its mid-range offerings, are LHR products, which means they have been harder hit by the recent declines in mining profitability. This was reflected in pricing to some extent, although overall Nvidia’s cards were relatively flat. I suspect that we will only see price cuts if the cryptocurrency market continues to decline for several weeks, as has been the case recently. Just a few weeks ago, the outlook for miners was much more positive, which helped keep GPU prices high.

AMD’s Radeon RX 6000 series graphics cards aren’t very good, and last week there weren’t too many cards like the RX 6800 XT, and especially the RX 6800. However, the RX 6700 XT is still available and its price has increased by 11% month by month. %, approaching June’s level. With that in mind, prices are still 25% lower than the peak for this card in March, and there has been no change in the prices of the RX 6600 XT, which is still averaging $ 640 in the scalper market.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price average price of eBay in July average eBay price in August average eBay price in September Current price inflation Price increases from August to September
Radeon 6900 XT 400,000 400,460 400 622 400 569 57% -3%
Radeon 6800 XT 650 400 282 400 268 400 411 117% 11%
Radeon 6800 $ 580 400 087 400,127 400 309 126% 16%
Radeon 6700 XT $ 480 733 793 $ 881 83% 11%
Radeon RX 6600 XT $ 380 pLN 633 pLN 639 68% 1%
Average 90% 7%

Whether it’s for work or entertainment, many people are looking for electronic devices such as computers, smartphones or tablets. This drastically increased the demand for graphics cards, which is why graphics cards are so expensive these days.

Windows 11 product satisfaction is highest of all Windows, says Microsoft

According to Microsoft, Windows 11 is rolling out twice as fast as Windows 10 via upgrade offers. In addition, the Windows 11 upgrade offer is entering the final stage of availability, which Microsoft did not anticipate until mid-2022.

Intel’s €1.06 billion antitrust fine overturned by EU’s General Court

The European Union Court has just lifted a € 1.06 billion fine imposed on Intel in 2009. The fine was initially imposed after the European Commission found that Intel was abusing its dominant position in the processor market to foreclose competitors.

Whether it’s for work or entertainment, many people are looking for electronic devices such as computers, smartphones or tablets. This drastically increased the demand for graphics cards, which is why graphics cards are so expensive these days.

Nvidia GeForce RTX 30 Founders Edition GPUs get price hikes, still cheaper than most

Nvidia GeForce RTX 3090 Founders Edition card installed on a PC.

As VideoCardz has noted, Nvidia is pushing up the prices of its latest reference cards: the GeForce RTX 30 Founders Edition. In the UK, only the RTX 3070 Ti Founders Edition saw an increase from £ 529 to £ 549, but in the euro countries these graphics cards will earn buyers up to € 100 more than before. This is true for the RTX 3090 FE, which currently costs the widow € 1,649, while the rest of the range has gained a wallet weight of between € 20 and € 60.

I am a little concerned that we will see more of these price changes in the UK. While stocks are negligible, even by modern GPU standards, the Founders Edition models offer some of the best opportunities to actually buy a new graphics card at a retail price, either directly from Nvidia or from retail partners such as Scan. Knowing this, as well as being some of the best graphics cards on the market, will keep the barriers to entry disappointing.

That said, when it comes to gouging prices, the green team apparently has a lot to learn – what’s another £ 20 when other RTX 3070 Ti models are available on Amazon for £ 1,200 or more? Come on, Nvidia, you don’t even artificially double these prices. Honestly, an amateur hour. I guess there is also a possibility that these Founders Edition increases will be used to justify that other RTX 30 models are getting even more expensive, but no one should throw RRP on the graphics card multiple times in the beginning. Even if it’s really tasty.

Indeed, even if a whole bunch of Founders Edition cards received the same UK raises as they did in the EU, they are likely to still remain among the best GPU options available. Sometimes available, anyway.

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James has retired from Dota writing for RPS to write about RPS hardware. His favorite water cooler size is 280mm and he always uses RGB lighting, setting everything to a uniform light blue.

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NVIDIA has announced it will restrict cryptocurrency mining on its new cards to counter this development. Only time will tell if they succeed.

Those damned cryptocoins

The situation was no longer sustainable for PC players after the tariffs were introduced, but by then cryptocurrency speculators added gasoline to the fire.

Whenever cryptocurrency prices go up, graphics cards get scarcer as we saw earlier in 2013 and 2017. You cannot use consumer graphics cards to mine Bitcoin, the most famous cryptocurrency, but you have to use standard graphics processors to mine Ethereum. Then you can exchange your Ethereum for Bitcoin or cash on cryptocurrency exchanges. Well, Bitcoin’s price exploded in October 2020, and in January, the Ethereum price hit. In April 2020, one Ethereum was priced at $ 140 for Coindesk; by October, when Bitcoin’s growth began, Ethereum reached $ 350 per coin. That number tripled to around 400,000 in early January 2021, peaked at 400,958 in mid-February, and is still close to 400,700 today.

Ethereum pricing screenshot of March 23, 2021.

When Ethereum’s prices are going crazy, almost any graphics card with more than 4GB of memory can be worthwhile. As a result, the already scandalous GPU shortage became even more pronounced, and even used two- or three-generation graphics cards sold for more than they cost new years ago. Things are so bad that Nvidia has revived the RTX 2060 and the four-year-old GTX 1050 Ti to help with the deliveries. Gross.

And with the Ethereum boom, this perfect storm has finally merged into the GPU crash we see today.

When will it end?

If your kit doesn’t look like this yet, you might be out of luck for months.

Unfortunately, no one knows when this madness will end. None of the underlying causes of today’s GPU deficiencies point to weakening, and aside from PC components, we’re hearing even more warnings about semiconductor deficiencies. Don’t expect relief to come for months.

Value is in the eye of the beholder, but we cannot recommend paying today’s ridiculously exorbitant graphics card prices or paying scalpers. If you have a working GPU, try overclocking it or adjusting graphics settings in games to squeeze more life out of your existing hardware.

If you don’t have a decent graphics card and need something to amplify your gameplay while everyone is spending more time at home, there are a couple of options. You may be more fortunate enough to find a graphics card in a brick-and-mortar store if you don’t mind risking a visit to a physical retailer. Choosing a next-gen console is a viable alternative if you don’t mind buying new games (or subscribing to the fantastic Xbox Game Pass Ultimate subscription). Unfortunately, the Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 have also been hard to buy since their release in late 2020. However, they are easier to get than the PC parts.

Nvidia’s GeForce Now lets you stream games from your PC to almost any device in the cloud.

Finally, if you have a solid internet connection, you can also stream your games from a cloud server for a solid 1080p gaming experience. We recommend Nvidia’s surprisingly good GeForce Now service, which lets you play a lot of the games you already have in your existing PC libraries. Here’s what you need for a good GeForce Now experience.

Google Stadia is also a streaming option. It acts more like a cloud console and the games you buy are locked to Stadia only. But if you pre-order Resident Evil Village on Stadia for $ 60, Google will send you a free Stadia Premiere kit for $ 100 with a white Stadia controller, a Chromecast Ultra that can stream your game on your TV, and a complementary Stadia Pro monthly trial for new subscribers.

Good luck with whatever you choose. You will need this.

Editor’s Note: This article was originally published on March 25, 2021, but was updated on April 16 to highlight pessimistic supply forecasts from TSMC and Nvidia in the second section.

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