What to expect from the GPU market in 2022. When will graphics card prices go down

Even if the immediate future is not very bright, any scarcity ends one way or another in this world order. As the Turks ironically joke: “There is no shortage of solutions in capitalism.”

At long last, Nvidia and AMD GPU street prices are beginning to drop

We’re not even out of the woods yet – we’re not even close – but it looks like Nvidia and AMD GPU prices may finally drop. Tom’s Hardware in the US and 3DCenter.org in Germany are charting on eBay and local retail prices respectively, and they both see the same thing: a significant drop for almost every new graphics card manufactured by Nvidia and AMD.

You want the Nvidia RTX 3080? Two months ago, it could have cost 400,773 on the street – more than two and a half times the manufacturer’s suggested retail price. As reported in November with our own chart, this was typical of the hottest graphics cards, and Tom’s Hardware shows that things got a bit worse in December. But in January, those prices dropped 11 percent to an average of 400,600.

The RTX 3080 isn’t alone: ​​most of all RTX 3000 and AMD Radeon RX 6000 graphics cards have dropped between about 5 and 10 percent, with the RX 6900 XT being the only exception that has increased in price.

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Keep in mind that Tom’s Hardware also shows that sales volumes dropped significantly on eBay, with some cards barely replaced in the beginning: just nine Radeon RX 6800 units changed hands in a week. It’s possible that prices are going down because some people give up not wanting to pay scalper fees.

Or maybe it has to do with the diver the cryptocurrency has done recently. It’ll be interesting to see if the recent decline will drastically lower GPU prices as they won’t be as valuable to miners now. Miners often sell large amounts of graphics cards when they can’t get them to work. This batch of eBay data is from last week, so it doesn’t have the full impact of cryptocurrencies yet.

But 3DCenter.org shows that the decline occurs not only when GPUs are sold on the aftermarket, but also at German retailers:

Chart by 3DCenter.org

Between those two reports, that seems like a good sign – even if you still pay more than double the MSRP for the RTX 3060 Ti right now.

While we haven’t seen any significant signs that supply has kept pace with demand (these GPUs are still extremely hard to find for anything other than exorbitant prices), Nvidia and AMD have repeatedly signaled that they expect supply to improve in the second half of 2022.

On the front, PS5 and Xbox Series X are also seeing second-hand prices drop on eBay. I’ve been running several numbers on eBay over the past three months and both Sony and Microsoft’s flagship consoles have dropped $ 100, from an average price of $ 800 to an average of around $ 700. Here are the charts if you are curious.

average PS5 Selling Price on eBay, Last 90 Days Screenshot by Sean Hollister / The Verge

Xbox Series X Average selling price on eBay, last 90 days. Screenshot: Sean Hollister / The Verge

But while industry experts and consumers are getting a better understanding of what caused the global chip shortage, most people still don’t know when they can expect to finally get access to GPUs again. A new DigiTimes report sheds some light on the situation (via WinFuture).

Intel Arc Alchemist GPUs

Perhaps the most exciting news about the GPU in 2022 is Intel’s Arc Alchemist graphics cards. Intel makes a lot of GPUs, but Arc Alchemist is designing a slot-in desktop GPU that focuses on games for the first time.

Rumors have suggested that Intel will introduce cards at CES, which is, in a way, true. Intel has announced that Arc Alchemist will be appearing on more than 50 desktops and laptops “soon” at CES, but the company has not disclosed details of what cards are in the range, when they come out, or how much they will cost. So far, we know of a few laptops – like the Alienware X17 – with the Arc GPU, but no other details otherwise.

Rumor has it that the flagship card in the range will work close to the RTX 3070, but I’m waiting for Intel to release more. Intel has already shared some information about the XeSS scaling feature that will be included with these graphics cards. It works similar to Nvidia Deep Learning Super Sampling (DLSS), and Intel announced that Hitman 3, The Riftbreaker, and Death Stranding: Director’s Cut will support this feature at launch.

For too long, the GPU market has been mired in competition between AMD and Nvidia, so I can’t wait to see what Intel can do with Arc Alchemist. XeSS looks destructive enough, and as long as the cards perform as rumors suggest, we’ll have a third competitor in the ring. That said, we’re already in the boot window Intel announced for Arc Alchemist, and we still don’t know much about cards.

New mobile GPUs from AMD and Nvidia

Dan Baker / digital trends

Nvidia recently launched the 12GB variant of the RTX 2060 Super, and Nvidia and AMD made new desktop announcements at CES. AMD brought the RX 6500 XT for $ 199, and Nvidia showed the RTX 3050 for $ 249 and the RTX 3090 Ti. Nvidia also quietly released the 12GB variant of the RTX 3080, which was not featured at CES.

That’s it for desktop classifieds now. For the first half of the year, Nvidia and AMD focus on mobile graphics. AMD has unveiled eight new mobile GPU designs at CES, including new RX 6000S cards. These cards are the opposite of the Nvidia Max-Q offering, focusing on performance per watt rather than raw performance.

Nvidia only unveiled two new mobile GPUs, but they are good. The mobile RTX 3080 Ti and RTX 3070 Ti models will eventually replace non-Ti laptops and should offer significant performance gains. Nvidia says the mobile RTX 3080 Ti is more powerful than the Titan RTX desktop, which is really impressive.

I do not suspect that we will see more mobile GPUs from Nvidia or AMD, at least not from the current generation. We can see some special editions, but AMD and Nvidia after CES put together the cell phone lines.

Nvidia recently launched the 12GB variant of the RTX 2060 Super, and Nvidia and AMD made new desktop announcements at CES. AMD brought the RX 6500 XT for $ 199, and Nvidia showed the RTX 3050 for $ 249 and the RTX 3090 Ti. Nvidia also quietly released the 12GB variant of the RTX 3080, which was not featured at CES.

No GPU for You!

While availability may be decent, gamers won’t be able to purchase inexpensive GPUs at retail anytime soon for two reasons. # 1: Nvidia is not making any significant efforts to bring the cheaper RTX 3050 to retail. We can see AMD launch the RX 6600 without the XT, but that isn’t likely to help either. While the 3050 has been available in laptops for some time now, we haven’t received anything from our contacts to suggest that the card is coming to desktop buyers anytime soon. Reason # 2: is the main reason, and that is cryptocurrency mining.

Of course, it is now clear that GPU prices are directly related to the profitability of mining. This is not supply related, not related to a pandemic or anything like that – GPUs are priced according to how much money can be made from them. It’s a guide AIB and distributors use when setting prices, and prices clearly fluctuate as the profitability of mining changes.

Cryptocurrency fans are likely to rush the comments to point the blame elsewhere, but prices have not changed in the face of demand for games – which has remained high for a year. The main reason you can’t buy GPUs at a decent price is that it is profitable to mine crypto on them, and miners are willing to pay higher prices indefinitely for a money printer. If mining were not profitable on modern GPUs, you probably would now have a new GPU in your hands at the suggested retail price, as this generation’s record supply by this point will be enough to meet the demand for games.

The Crypto Rollercoaster

So, what has happened in the mining country in the past month? The prices of the most popular mining coin, Ethereum, have been relatively flat from month to month, a few weeks ago there was a period where prices rose, cooled down, and there has been a decline in the past few days. But it’s a volatile market as usual, so overall it was flat.

Meanwhile, during this period, Ethereum’s difficulty has increased by about 15%, meaning there is a decent amount of additional mining gear in the pool compared to a month ago. This would be a reaction to rising cryptocurrency prices over the past two months, but it has stabilized slightly over the past week. This means that miners were interested in buying GPUs for mining, which contributed to higher prices, although the impact is that as the difficulty increases, mining rewards decrease. So increasing difficulty is both a good and a bad sign for players.

Overall, this has led to a decline in mining profitability, which is currently down by around 25% month-on-month, though it depends on the specific GPU. Cards where Ethereum is not the most viable choice of coins to mine – such as Nvidia LHR GPUs – have seen more serious drops. However, most of these drops happened last week after the cryptocurrency price peak, and as there is always a lag before it is reflected in GPU prices, we are only now starting to see these effects.

Nvidia recently launched the 12GB variant of the RTX 2060 Super, and Nvidia and AMD made new desktop announcements at CES. AMD brought the RX 6500 XT for $ 199, and Nvidia showed the RTX 3050 for $ 249 and the RTX 3090 Ti. Nvidia also quietly released the 12GB variant of the RTX 3080, which was not featured at CES.

GPU Pricing Update

Now let’s talk about the current GPU market. Cryptocurrencies remain strong overall, with most coins, including Ethereum, appreciating in the past month. This has also caused increased difficulties, suggesting that there is still interest in increasing the stocks of GPUs used for mining. Profitability rose for most of the month, until the last few days when the cryptocurrency had cooled down somewhat and left month-to-month profitability unchanged. In other words, 2021 has been a fairly typical month for a major GPU pricing driver.

Street prices for the new GPUs were estimated from last week’s eBay auctions, which showed that after a few months of relatively low prices, prices rose in November.

This is expected given what happened on the cryptocurrency side, where scalper prices reflect cryptocurrency prices to a lesser extent and with little lag. Nvidia GPUs saw an average price increase of 6% month-on-month, with the RTX 3090 and RTX 3060 Ti recording the highest increases and the RTX 3070 having the lowest increases by 4%.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price	average eBay price in September	average price of eBay in October	average price of eBay in November	Current price inflation	Price increase from October to November
GeForce RTX 3090	400,500	3,500,863	3500 818	$ 3,107	107%	10%
GeForce RTX 3080 Ti	400 200	400.880	400 851	400 916	60%	4%
GeForce RTX 3080	700 PLN	400 673	400 534	400 584	126%	3%
GeForce RTX 3070 Ti	600 PLN	400 191	400.151	400 227	104%	7%
GeForce RTX 3070	pLN 500	400.180	400 121	400,170	134%	4%
GeForce RTX 3060 Ti	pLN 400	$ 866	860	946	136%	10%
GeForce RTX 3060	330	$ 708	692	739	124%	7%
Average	113%	6%

Despite these hikes, Nvidia GPUs are still selling at some of the lowest prices we saw in 2021. Prices are similar to the level we observed in August and September, which is lower than the peaks recorded in 2020.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price	average eBay price in September	average price of eBay in October	average price of eBay in November	Current price inflation	Price increase from October to November
Radeon 6900 XT	400,000	400 569	400 493	400 585	59%	6%
Radeon 6800 XT	650	400 411	400 388	400 524	134%	10%
Radeon 6800	$ 580	400 309	400 254	400 413	144%	13%
Radeon 6700 XT	$ 480	$ 881	872	$ 980	104%	12%
Radeon RX 6600 XT	$ 380	pLN 639	$ 621	689	81%	11%
Radeon RX 6600	330	$ 571	584 PLN	77%	2%
Average	100%	9%

Used GPU Pricing

As the number of all-new current generation GPUs increases, so does the growth in the used market. The GeForce RTX 20 series saw price increases worldwide, with a 6 percent increase month-to-month.

The RTX 2060 Super was the hardest hit, and somehow it sells an average of $ 30 more than the RTX 2070. All of these GPUs are selling well above their original MSRP.

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price	average eBay price in September	average price of eBay in October	average price of eBay in November	Current price inflation	Price increase from October to November
GeForce RTX 2080 Ti	400,000	400,158	400 102	400.182	18%	7%
GeForce RTX 2080 Super	700 PLN	pLN 804	786	841	twenty%	7%
GeForce RTX 2080	700 PLN	736	$ 713	$ 772	10%	8%
GeForce RTX 2070 Super	pLN 500	720	$ 722	$ 768 USD	54%	6%
GeForce RTX 2070	pLN 500	650	$ 676	700 PLN	40%	3%
GeForce RTX 2060 Super	pLN 400	$ 662	657	732	83%	11%
GeForce RTX 2060	350	pLN 514	pLN 535	543 PLN	55%	1%
Average	40%	6%

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price	average eBay price in September	average price of eBay in October	average price of eBay in November	Current price inflation	Price increase from October to November
GeForce GTX 1660 Ti	$ 280	$ 491	pLN 476	497	78%	4%
GeForce GTX 1660 Super	230	pLN 494	$ 486	520 PLN	126%	7
GeForce GTX 1660	220	378	387	$ 417	90%	8%
GeForce GTX 1650 Super	$ 160	$ 302	299	$ 315	97%	6%
GeForce GTX 1650	pLN 150	$ 262	$ 266	$ 263	75%	-1%
Average	93%	5%

Manufacturer’s suggested retail price	average eBay price in September	average price of eBay in October	average price of eBay in November	Current price inflation	Price increase from October to November
GeForce GTX 1080 Ti	700 PLN	$ 676	669	697	0%	4%
GeForce GTX 1080	600 PLN	$ 459	pLN 464	pLN 508	-15%	10%
GeForce GTX 1070 Ti	450	451	$ 453	$ 462	3%	2%
GeForce GTX 1070	$ 380	373	$ 380	pLN 416	9%	9%
GTX 1060 6 GB graphics card	pLN 250	309	297	326	thirty%	10%
GeForce GTX 1060 3 GB	pLN 200	$ 214	$ 214	235	17%	10%
Average	7%	7%

For this reason, the value has dropped recently between AMD and Nvidia, making cards like the 6700 XT more difficult to recommend at current scalper prices. However, while the price of the 6,600 XT has risen and continues to rise, it’s also worth considering.

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At the peak of the chip shortage in 1988, Super Mario Bros. 3 was getting ready to hit the market and dozens of titles were scrapped to produce more copies of Mario, then Nintendo of America’s vice president of marketing Peter Main was asked what they were doing with the shortage. “Besides hope and prayer?” he replied.

What the future holds

Manufacturer GeForce recently announced that the global graphics card shortage would continue throughout 2021. To make matters worse, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and processor maker Intel also warned that the shortage could continue throughout 2022.

Given the state of the pandemic and these promises from major companies, the immediate future seems terrible. For at least a few years, the entry-level and mid-range graphics card market is likely to be dominated by the GTX 1030, and high-powered cards like the RTX series will be even rarer.

I’m pretty sure a lot of people who would otherwise build a personal computer for themselves chose the more expensive laptops simply because they needed more graphics power from the beginning of this scarcity.

Even if the immediate future is not very bright, any scarcity ends one way or another in this world order. As the Turks ironically joke: “There is no shortage of solutions in capitalism.”

Yes, the current shortage will also end, though not in a very short time. Waiting seems to be the only option for players these days, aside from hope and prayer.

Not to mention the obvious, the shortage of graphics cards is due to the demand exceeding the supply, and one of the main reasons why demand is so high is cryptocurrency mining .

Solution 1: Buy Used, Last-Gen GPUs

One possible solution is to purchase a used GPU of comparable power to what you are looking for, either from the previous generation of the same manufacturer or from a competitor. This works best in the mid-range, where higher-end GPUs will be thicker counterparts.

The alternative GPUs in the market you are using, listed below, should provide a rough equivalent (give or take ~ 10 percent more or less) to these GPUs on your system. Try to buy as late as possible to avoid GPU end-of-life and to get better support for the latest games.

It should be noted that even these cards will be more expensive than usual as people use inflated prices to earn more selling in the secondary market. Even so, it’s definitely worth a look at ebay or Craigslist to see if you can find some good deals. EBay will have higher prices but will have better buyer protection. There is also a Hardware Replacement Subreddit.

Here are some useful replacements for Nvidia and AMD GPUs:

• Replacement for Nvidia GeForce RTX 3060: RTX 2070, RTX 2060 Super, GTX 1660 Ti / RX 5700
• Replacement for Nvidia GeForce RTX 3060 Ti / AMD Radeon RX 6700 XT: RTX 2080, RTX 2080 Super, GTX 1080 Ti / RX 5700 XT
• Replacement for Nvidia GeForce RTX 3070 / AMD Radeon RX 6700 XT, RX 6800: RTX 2080 Ti
• Replacement for Nvidia GeForce RTX 3080 / AMD Radeon RX 6800 XT: Nvidia Titan RTX
• Nvidia GeForce RTX 3090 / AMD Radeon RX 6900 XT replacement

Solution 2: Buy A Prebuilt PC

It may physically hurt for PC building enthusiasts (like us), but precompilation can be one of the best options these days. Companies like iBuyPower or CyberpowerPC buy their GPUs in bulk from vendors, so they are less affected by the GPU shortage and associated price increases, although it is still to be expected that some will emerge. This is a reversal of the norm – were it not for the lack of a GPU, buying a finished computer would be a little more expensive than building it yourself from the same / equivalent components.

If you are going to buy a prefabricated online gaming PC, we advise you to stick to specialized retailers such as iBuyPower or CyberpowerPC or possibly Origin. They offer the best performance for your money. Alienware and the like may look great, but tend to be overpriced for the components they ship with iBuyPower and Cyberpower should offer the best PC precompilations you can get on the market, both in terms of build quality and price.

Micro Center is almost the last major retailer of desktop hardware in the United States and remains relevant in helping deal with the GPU shortage. The way they do this is to lower GPU prices for those who buy a full PC from the Microcenter store. If you are buying a brand new computer and not just upgrading your existing computer, this is probably the safest way to save the biggest money. MicroCenter’s rebates in these situations tend to be about as close to the suggested retail price as possible. Just remember to call in advance and make sure that the microcenter you choose actually has the equipment you need in stock and is ready to discount it.For UK buyers, SCAN is a good counterpart to the full PC versions.

In addition to these PC gaming specialists, you can of course also buy ready-made gaming PCs straight from Amazon and Best Buy.